Ben S Bernanke

Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall, Top Estimates

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Randall Kroszner, a former Federal Reserve governor who now teaches economics at the University of Chicago, talks about whether Ben S. Bernanke and the Fed will provide more quantitative easing. Kroszner also discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy. He speaks from Chicago with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks about the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to maintain rates at the current level and the outlook for the U.S. economy. Fed policymakers left the central bank's benchmark interest rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent, where it's been since December 2008, and decided to keep its balance sheet at a record to spur the slowing economy. (Excerpts. Source: Bloomberg)

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating little progress in the labor market. Jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 428,000 in the week ended June 25, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Jon Erlichman and Michael McKee report on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop with Betty Liu." (Source: Bloomberg)

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating little progress in the labor market.

Jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 428,000 in the week ended June 25, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington . The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 420,000. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls and those getting extended payments declined.

Weaker demand in recent months has prompted some companies to trim their workforces, adding to concern a cooling labor market will further restrain consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Federal Reserve officials last week retained record monetary stimulus to help the economy withstand a “temporary” slowdown in growth.

“The labor market is not making any material improvement,” said John Herrmann , senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston , who projected 429,000 claims in the latest week. “Consumer spending will be more constrained.”

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 43 economists ranged from 410,000 to 435,000. Stock-index futures maintained gains after the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in September rose 0.2 percent to 1,307 at 8:32 a.m. in New York .

FRB: Speech--Bernanke, The U.S. Economic Outlook--June 7, 2011

I would like to thank the organizers for inviting me to participate once again in the International Monetary Conference. I will begin with a brief update on the outlook for the U.S. economy, then discuss recent developments in global commodity markets that are significantly affecting both the U.S. and world economies, and conclude with some thoughts on the prospects for monetary policy.

The Outlook for Growth U.S. economic growth so far this year looks to have been somewhat slower than expected. Aggregate output increased at only 1.8 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, and supply chain disruptions associated with the earthquake and tsunami in Japan are hampering economic activity this quarter. A number of indicators also suggest some loss of momentum in the labor market in recent weeks. We are, of course, monitoring these developments. That said, with the effects of the Japanese disaster on manufacturing output likely to dissipate in coming months, and with some moderation in gasoline prices in prospect, growth seems likely to pick up somewhat in the second half of the year. Overall, the economic recovery appears to be continuing at a moderate pace, albeit at a rate that is both uneven across sectors and frustratingly slow from the perspective of millions of unemployed and underemployed workers.

As is often the case, the ability and willingness of households to spend will be an important determinant of the pace at which the economy expands in coming quarters. A range of positive and negative forces is currently influencing both household finances and attitudes. On the positive side, household incomes have been boosted by the net improvement in job market conditions since earlier this year as well as from the reduction in payroll taxes that the Congress passed in December. Increases in household wealth--largely reflecting gains in equity values--and lower debt burdens have also increased consumers' willingness to spend. On the negative side, households are facing some significant headwinds, including increases in food and energy prices, declining home values, continued tightness in some credit markets, and still-high unemployment, all of which have taken a toll on consumer confidence.

Developments in the labor market will be of particular importance in setting the course for household spending. As you know, the jobs situation remains far from normal. For example, aggregate hours of production workers--a comprehensive measure of labor input that reflects the extent of part-time employment and opportunities for overtime as well as the number of people employed--fell, remarkably, by nearly 10 percent from the beginning of the recent recession through October 2009. Although hours of work have increased during the expansion, this measure still remains about 6-1/2 percent below its pre-recession level. For comparison, the maximum decline in aggregate hours worked in the deep 1981-82 recession was less than 6 percent. Other indicators, such as total payroll employment, the ratio of employment to population, and the unemployment rate, paint a similar picture. Particularly concerning is the very high level of long-term unemployment--nearly half of the unemployed have been jobless for more than six months. People without work for long periods can find it increasingly difficult to obtain a job comparable to their previous one, as their skills tend to deteriorate over time and as employers are often reluctant to hire the long-term unemployed.

Essays on the Great Depression

Inflation targeting, lessons from the international experience

Principles of Macroeconomics, Brief Edition

The Inflation-Targeting Debate

Principles of microeconomics